What is China Doing with Balloons
Ava Zhao / The Exonian via Midjourney
By Leo Zhang ‘25
On Jan. 28, 2023, an unidentified flying object drifted over the southern tip of Alaska. Five days later, civilians in Montana looked up at a white, circular disc floating in the sky. Officials and politicians immediately condemned China after word came out that the unidentified object was a ‘spy’ balloon; China claimed it was simply gathering weather data. The U.S. military sent the aircraft F-22 Raptor to shoot down the balloon on Feb. 4 as it cruised above the Atlantic Ocean near the coast of South Carolina. Upon examining the fallen debris, officials confirmed that the balloon had surveillance technology equipped.
China’s curiosity about the U.S. is nothing new, from spies (PBS Chicago) attending American universities to the social media giant TikTok stealing information (WIRED) from millions of Americans. China-U.S. relations have deteriorated in recent years with trade wars, COVID-19, and races to grow their spheres of influence around the world. But days before Secretary of State Antony Blinken planned a visit to Beijing “to reinforce communication and cooperation (CNBC) between the two countries,” China sent a balloon that increased distrust and hostility.
This bold move by the Chinese government reveals China’s true intentions: President Xi Jinping is planning one final offensive to invade Taiwan.
When the Republic of China retreated to the island and claimed independence in 1949, every subsequent leader of the Chinese Communist Party vowed to “reunify” China again. Other than pride, conquering Taiwan would give China tangible advantages. With a U.S. ally right next door, China would love to see itself asserting its dominance as a superpower by removing enemy influence. Taiwan’s location between the East and South China Sea would allow China to expand its military near the Philippines and Japan. Economically, China could control 65% of all semiconductors and around 90% of all advanced chips (Voice of America) that Taiwan manufactures.
However, the window for an invasion is closing quickly. 1989 marked the beginning of the end of the CCP’s control in China, as the world watched the Chinese military shoot unarmed protestors fighting for free speech and democracy. The booming economy of China and a high standard of living created unstoppable access to technology through phones and the Internet, which serve as a platform for freedom of expression. When a protestor hung two banners and burned tires on the Sitong Bridge in Beijing in October, the government worked with Chinese social media to censor all dissent and coverage of the event. Officials never expected that demonstrators would use Apple’s AirDrop feature to spread photos of the banners to people’s phones in crowded public spaces.
The CCP is even reporting propaganda about the spy balloon, which according to their newspaper, People’s Daily, was simply “designed for meteorological research purpose and made the unintended entry due to force majeure.” Technology makes censorship and propaganda near to impossible. With access to all sorts of information, the Chinese people can deduce that the “weather” balloon was not a weather balloon.
President Xi is watching his control over the people begin to fade. He desperately needs data on the U.S., Taiwan’s strongest ally, to plan his attack before time runs out. But why wouldn’t he use satellites to avoid detection? Well, a balloon has many advantages over satellites. They are much cheaper to build and maintain. Balloons would also not have to deal with atmospheric interference (Daily Kos) with radiation because of their low altitude. The Chinese government then could easily map (Forces) out of the balloon’s route with modern weather forecasting and get accurate images of U.S. military bases and operations.
Even with spies and balloons feeding intel to the Chinese government, an invasion still seems improbable. President Joe Biden has stated that he would dispatch troops (Reuters) if China dared to invade Taiwan. President Xi could keep sending balloons, drones, or spies, and the U.S. will keep shooting them down. He will make his move soon, if at all. If he does, he would be risking an all-out war with the most powerful military in the world, which could escalate with the numerous allies of each country.
