Syrian Civil War
By RAY LI ‘28 AND LEVI STOLL ‘28
In the winter of 2024, a conflict which ended with a ceasefire has reignited the flames of war. The conflict in question is the Syrian civil war, which stopped for four years from 2020-2024 as a result of a negotiated peace between various factions within Syria negotiated by Russia and Turkey. On November 27th of 2024, the various Syrian forces commonly referred to as the Opposition launched an offensive from the city of Idlib towards Syria’s second largest city Aleppo, ultimately resulting in a shocking overturn of the Assads’ 50 year regime in Syria.
In order to understand the turn of events starting from November 27th. The various factions within Syria must be clarified. Following the 2020 ceasefire agreement. The primary factions within Syria included the internationally recognized Syrian government under Bashar Al-Assad, whose military the Syrian Arab Army is abbreviated as the SAA(Red). The second prominent faction are a group of Ismalist insurgents known as Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS (White); since the ceasefire in 2020, they have been relegated to the city of Idlib. The third major faction within Syria is the Syrian National Army, SNA (Light Green). This group was founded in 2017 with great support from Turkey, this faction acts in adherence with the interests of Turkey, the SNA opposed the Kurdish region in the east as well as the Assad regime. The fourth faction within Syria is the Syrian Democratic Forces, or the SDF (Yellow). This group is primarily composed of ethnic Kurds, their primary objective being to retain the Kurdish autonomy obtained and resist against Turkey and Turkish backed groups such as the SNA. The SDF has in the past largely received the support of the USA. In the south, a fifth faction known as the New Syrian Army, or NSA (Mint Green), is backed by the USA and contains US military bases. Lastly, there are a number of minor rebel forces to the south of Damascus which have since largely come to agreement with the Assad regime. In the center of the country, there are still elements of ISIS, though not significant.
To answer the question what caused the four year ceasefire to a decade-long conflict to be broken, one must look at supporters of Assad’s regime. Those being Iran and Russia, whom both at this time are preoccupied with other matters at hand. For Russia it is the war in Ukraine which has exhausted much of their national strength, for Iran it is the conflict in Gaza, southern Lebanon as well as Israeli airstrikes on Iran.
It is important to recognize that though the initial attack would be launched by the HTS and elements of the Turkish backed SNA, following initial successes other factions would capitalize on the opportunity to overthrow the common enemy within Syria that being Assad. As the HTS forces marched on Aleppo, the city would fall only 2 days after the commencement of the attack, on the 29th the capture of Aleppo would be announced. On the 5th of December, another major city on the road to Damascus would be captured by joint rebel forces from the north, at the same time, various small factions which had previously aligned themselves with the Assad government now rose up to the south of Damascus. Two days later on the 7th of December, the last major city before Damascus would fall to the HTS led rebels from the north. On December 8th, the capital of Syria Damascus would fall to rebels with minimal resistance. This would mark the end of the 50 year reign of the Al-Assad family in Syria as Bashar Al-Assad fled and was granted asylum in Moscow. Throughout the entire duration from November 27th-December 8th, all factions including the NSA, SDF, and SNA would gain much territory from former Assad regions. Following the fall of Assad, fighting has broken out once again between the Turkish backed SNA and US backed SNF.
Following the rather bloodless fall of Assad’s regime, Syria will hardly be at peace. Prior to his fall, Assad was the sole factor which held all the other rebel factions in a coalition. However, two other factors have still yet to be put into consideration, those being Israeli and Russian interests in the region. Russia has two military bases on the coast of Syria, those being the naval base of Tartus and the Khmeimim air base. As of now, the negotiations between Russia and the new government in Damascus are ongoing. In terms of Israel, following the collapse of the Al-Assad government on the 8th of December, Israeli armored units crossed the UN buffer zone on the already disputed Golan Heights in order to create a buffer zone.
The events in Syria, particularly the collapse of Assad’s regime and the ensuing chaos, hold particular relevance for Exeter’s unique global community and prominent position in the education community. Exeter students, many of which themselves may play a part in these geopolitical affairs, must deeply examine how external powers like the U.S., Russia, and Turkey influence regional conflicts. Exeter needs to impart prominent global events such as this one onto its student body for a greater understanding of the world and its volatility. As the situation unfolds, students should do their best to stay aground of the war, especially in robust clubs such as Model UN and debate. Staying informed on conflicts such as these will not only broaden students’ global perspective but inform many Harkness discussions to come.