Reflections on the Iowa Caucuses

There is no need to inform the Exeter student body that the Iowa caucuses have taken place, but Monday was a night of surprises.Though both the Republican and Democratic caucuses occur at the same time throughout the state, they are run differently. Democrats split into groups when they arrive at the public center where their local caucus is being held. These groups declare their support for one of the candidates and if there are fewer than 15 percent of attendees declaring for a certain candidate, that candidate is no longer eligible. The attendees who supported that candidate can choose another candidate or choose not to vote at all. This is, most likely, a factor in Gov. Martin O’Malley’s dismal numbers. The Republican caucuses allow for citizens to speak on behalf of each candidate. This is followed by those in attendance casting ballots, which are then counted and the numbers are given to the state party.The polling leading up to the caucuses was interesting to watch. Hillary Clinton, the early clear favorite, saw her 50 percent lead over Bernie Sanders in Iowa slowly evaporate to an almost even race while Donald Trump steadily made inroads into the early lead of Sen. Ted Cruz. Bernie Sanders gained tremendous momentum ahead of the Iowa caucuses while on the Republican side, Iowa was a real test for Cruz in assessing his evangelical voter base. Iowa is thought to be the state that would be “most receptive to his appeal to ideological conservatives and evangelicals,” said CNN.The caucuses had a tumultuous beginning for those watching at home on the Republican side. Trump took the early lead, but Cruz pulled ahead as more of the votes came in. Sen. Marco Rubio sat consistently at third, but with a steadily rising percentage of the votes. Rubio did much better than many had predicted, but he still has a way to go before November becomes a possibility. It was little surprise that those candidates who were behind Cruz, Trump and Rubio in the polls prior to the caucuses stayed there since most had made New Hampshire their focus in recent weeks. What was surprising was that Ben Carson, taking fourth place, and Rand Paul, taking fifth place, both took significant leads over Jeb Bush, who languished in sixth.Clinton stayed in the lead for the democrats, but Sanders’ support rose as the night went on. Her victory, thanks to fewer than 0.3 percent of the vote, cannot really be called a victory at all. The big winner on the democratic side was, by all accounts, Sanders. Prior to Iowa, Clinton had been thought to be the inevitable candidate for the Democrats, but Sanders proved that not to be the case on Monday night. He said in his speech given before the end of the night that, “while the results are still unknown, it looks like we are in a virtual tie.” The fact that Sanders has a strong base does not bode well for the Clinton campaign and seeing as he has great support in New Hampshire, I expect his momentum to continue. The fact that Iowa was so split down the middle, for example Calhoun County’s vote was split 200 to 200, means that the run for the democratic nominee is far from over.The speeches post-caucus showed how the candidates viewed their results. Cruz said in his address in Des Moines that “tonight is a victory for courageous conservatives across Iowa and all across this great nation.” He went on to say that this caucus has shown that the power resides with the people, not the media, the “Washington establishment,” or lobbyists. Trump, in what was “easily the shortest speech he has given of this campaign season,” by MSNBC News’ standards, toned down from his usual boisterous, belligerent self to thank the people of Iowa and congratulate the other republican candidates. His passive speech could easily be seen as an admittance of defeat by someone who has been so focused on victory. On the other hand, Rubio was energetic, optimistic and proud of the results that put him in a close third to Trump, and in his speech he put a good deal of emphasis on his plans for the country, focusing especially on the Constitution and the military.On the Democratic Party’s side, Clinton, who began her speech in the middle of Cruz’s, said of the candidate race that, “It is rare that we have the opportunity we do now to have a real contest of ideas, to really think hard about what the democratic party stands for and what we want the future of our country to look like if we do our part to build it.” Many rallied behind her self declaration of being progressive and “getting the job done.” Sanders spent time talking about the corruptness of campaign financing and made a direct jab at Trump on that account. He also touted his opposition to representing the “interests of the billionaire class, Wall Street or corporate America” and exclaimed, “we don’t want their money.” One common thread through the post-caucus speeches was that all agree this is no ordinary election—the winner could decide the fate of the nation for a long time to come.Next stop in this election ...New Hampshire!