Loose Talk: The Editors’ Take
In a week with few headlines, controversies, or talking points, I’ll give some attention to the conclusion of the MLB season this week. And since the National League playoff picture is all but decided and the AL is set, save for the second wild card spot, let’s talk about the only interesting thing going on this week: the WNBA playoffs! Kidding. Let’s talk about baseball, because this National League Cy Young race, one of the most interesting in recent memory.
While there’s quite a few pitchers in contention, there’s a pretty obvious favorite that stands out from the bunch, and that’s Bartolo Colon. Kidding, again. In reality, this year is a sad one because there are three NL pitchers who are very deserving of the Cy Young award: Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw and Jake Arrieta. What makes this race particularly compelling is that Greinke and Kershaw are teammates on the Dodgers. Only two times in the awards’ history (since 1956) have teammates finished first and second in the voting. The first time was another pair of Dodgers teammates, Mike Marshall and Andy Messersmith in 1974; the second time was the Diamondbacks’ Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling in 2003. A 1-2 combo of this caliber is rare, to say the least.
Making any separation between these three is near-impossible. Many point to Greinke as the obvious favorite, and it’s true that he would be the easy choice this year. He has one of the lowest ERAs of all time, he’s behind only Arrieta in wins, and many of the advanced metrics point to him being the best pitcher in the league this year. However, I don’t buy it. Greinke’s consistent ability to prevent runs this season has been remarkable, yes, but he’s relied on his defense too much compared to the other two. Kershaw’s 87 more strikeouts (272 to 185) show that he’s made games much easier on his defense, which I find very important in terms of value and importance to a team. Kershaw’s 272:40 strikeout-to-walk ratio is one of the all-time great marks.
To further Kershaw’s case for Cy Young, Kershaw has been by far the most unlucky this season. I will only use one advanced metric to prove this. Kershaw’s Batting Average on Balls in Play is .283 compared to .255 for Arrieta and .231 shows how unlucky Kershaw has been. So Kershaw’s already ridiculous 0.90 WHIP and 2.18 ERA is actually a bit inflated. Kershaw’s number is close to the league average, while Arrieta and Greinke’s numbers are well below, suggesting that they’ve both been pretty lucky. Kershaw is actually having a better year than he did last year, in which he won both the Cy Young and the MVP.
Arrieta was considered the third man who was just hanging on to contention for the past few months, but after a 3-hit, 11-strikeout shutout on Tuesday night, Arrieta has put a stamp on his insane second half. Arrieta’s second half numbers stand at 10-1 with a 0.86 ERA. He’s been an absolute animal in the second half, even more so than the other two candidates.
Tuesday’s win put Arrieta at 20 on the year, making him the only one to hit that mark this year. Greinke, who sits at 18, has a shot at 20 but has to win his last two starts to get to that mark. Arrieta undoubtedly means the most to his team. He’s carried the Cubs, who have been dissapointed by Jon Lester’s performance this year, from a perrennial MLB bottomfeeder to a playoff spot with a good chance to get to the NLCS. He now stands at 20-6 with a 1.88 ERA and 220 strikeouts, close enough to Greinke that the record and ERA equal each other out and, in my opinion, Arrieta’s strikeout numbers and importance to the team put him above Greinke.
While it’s true that Greinke has had a historic year, so have the other two candidates. If I had a vote, I’d go the highly controversial route by going 1. Arrieta 2. Kershaw 3. Greinke. I might be shot in the streets by giving someone with a 1.65 ERA a third place vote, but that’s just how I feel. This race really comes down to what one values most in a pitcher, because each one has a different case to be made for himself. Each of them has two more starts to make this year, and those starts could make all of the difference on who wins the award as voters are looking for something to separate these aces. But, more likely than not, they will all continue to be dominant, making the decision even harder.
I expect Greinke to win the award because many analysts are in love with his ridiculous ERA, but I think it would be awesome for Arrieta to win his first Cy Young.