Battle in the Big Apple: Superbowl Predictions

For the first time in recent memory, the favorites at the start of the season are in the Super Bowl. Pretty much anyone could have predicted this year’s showdown in MetLife Stadium between the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks. Unlike the past few years, there is no streaking team that was inconsistent throughout the regular season, such as the Packers, Giants and Ravens of previous years, that is now riding it’s momentum to the championship. The Seahawks and Broncos were the two best teams in football on paper, on the field and throughout the entire regular season.Does a stingy defense trump an explosive offense? Will a legendary but aging quarterback come out on top against a fearless young gunslinger?From a purely analytical standpoint, I like the Seahawks. Their defense, throughout the season, contained a host of accomplished quarterbacks from Colin Kaepernick (twice), Drew Brees (twice), and Cam Newton. He may be more likeable if someone would cut his tongue out, but Richard Sherman is undeniably one of the best in the business, so you’d figure that Demaryius Thomas (or whoever he matches up with) may be essentially unavailable to Peyton come Sunday. On top of that, Seattle boasts what may be the best safety tandem in the game with Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas (and they, like Sherman, aren’t afraid to say it). Airing it out against the Seahawks’ fearsome secondary may prove costly for the Broncos, even if it is Peyton Manning under center.Seattle, on the other side of the ball, has an offense that is more than capable of shredding Denver’s achilles heel—their defense. Missing Von Miller, the Broncos have looked even more vulnerable against a decent (but nowhere near as great) San Diego offense, and a weaponless Tom Brady so far in the playoffs. Considering that Russell Wilson was able to put up points versus a truly elite defense in the 49ers two weeks ago, there is a chance that the second year signal caller could have a field day against a porous Denver secondary.So there is the purely on-paper analysis: positional strength, potential game-changers and track record. But often, the Super Bowl isn’t about the best quarterback or the deepest roster. After all, this isn’t a series like baseball, basketball or hockey. The two teams only have 60 minutes to get their hands on the Lombardi trophy. Winning or losing on Sunday will not inch a team closer to a best-of-seven victory or cause them to lose home-field advantage. A single play, or even a fluke, can clinch a championship. So just like “win it for Ray” was last year’s rallying call, and “it’s 2007 all over again” was the motto for the year before that, arguments based on themes of destiny or an aging team having one last shot at a ring are almost just as valid as the statistical ones.In this regard, the Broncos hold a significant edge. Their roster features Manning as well as Champ Bailey on the other side of the ball, and the two veterans are most likely playing in their final Super Bowl. In addition to that, Peyton has an extra incentive to bring home the Lombardi Trophy this year—in 2012, he was scheduled to be under center for the preseason favorite and Super Bowl host Indianapolis Colts before he sustained a career-threatening neck injury that cost him his spot in Indy. He also had to watch as his formerly favored team slipped to a 2-14 season and as his brother stole his spotlight by winning the Super Bowl with the New York Giants in his house, bringing home a second ring as well as a second Super Bowl MVP award (meaning Eli had now won more championships and more Super Bowl MVP's than his older brother).Now Peyton has the chance to make things right and to put an end to the farce of an argument over which Manning brother is the more accomplished. In part one of the process, the Broncos humiliated Eli and the Giants when the Broncos visited the Meadowlands. Now, the second and much more important step comes as Peyton revisits MetLife Stadium and tries to serve Eli a taste of his own medicine: a Super Bowl victory and MVP in his house. Adding more fuel to Peyton’s fire, he can likely permanently cement his legacy with a win over the Seahawks on Sunday.And what about Seattle? What intangible advantage do they possess? Well, not much, to be honest. First off, they don't have any incredibly strong momentum to speak of (they lost on Week 17 at home to Arizona), and they don't really have any compelling story-lines leading up to Sunday's contest, save whether Sherman will back up his trash talk from two weeks ago on the biggest stage. This may seem like an odd argument, but when's the last time a team won the Super Bowl with neither significant late-season momentum nor an extra incentive to win—whether it's a veteran playing in his final championship game, a team or player trying to silence the doubters, or even a community recovering from tragedy? You’d probably have to think back to Super Bowl XLIII between the Steelers and Cardinals, but even then, Pittsburgh was gunning for a record six Super Bowl victories. As history indicates, having something to play for can be the difference maker in the season’s final game.I've gone with my gut over the numbers and have been right in predicting the winner of the past two Super Bowls. Even if it was just luck, hopefully this year will yield the same result. I could clearly see the Seahawks containing Peyton and Co. and then gashing a vulnerable Denver defense wide open for the win. Then again, I could just as easily see a blizzard in the Meadowlands giving Russell Wilson trouble late in a close game, causing him to throw up a bad pass that Champ Bailey picks off and takes to the house for the game-winning score in his first and final Super Bowl.