What the Pentagon Leaks say About Ukraine?
by LEO ZHANG ‘25
Surrounded by FBI agents with weapons drawn, Jack Teixeira backed up to the armored vehicle with his hands on his head. The airman, an IT specialist for the Massachusetts Air National Guard, was charged with illegally removing classified national defense information on April 14. A low-ranking member having access to sensitive documents and posting them on Discord, an online messaging platform, marked a national embarrassment for the United States.
The U.S. intelligence on the Russia-Ukraine War was the most notable among the leaked information. The documents detailed the involvement of Western nations in Ukraine. According to the BBC, Western special forces have been conducting special operations in Ukraine. Special forces are military units that carry out special operations, which NATO defines as “military activities conducted by specially designated, organized, selected, trained, and equipped forces using unconventional techniques and modes of employment.” The United Kingdom had the most special forces in Ukraine with 50 personnel, followed by France with 15 and the United States with 14. The BBC also reports a counter offensive by Ukranian forces aided by Western countries. “Other documents say when a dozen new Ukrainian brigades – being prepared for an offensive that could begin within weeks – will be ready. They list, in great detail, the tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery pieces that are being provided by Ukraine’s Western allies.”
Despite Western support and engagement in Ukraine, the documents assess that Russia currently has the upper hand. CBS writes, “Another document estimates that while Russia’s ground capability is at 63%, its air capability stands at 92%. In contrast, Ukraine's ground capability is estimated to be at 83%, while its air capability stands at 68%. This imbalance in fighter jets and other aircraft puts the Ukrainian army at a disadvantage.” The Washington Post reported, “Ukraine’s challenges in massing troops, ammunition, and equipment could cause its military to fall ‘well short’ of Kyiv’s original goals for an anticipated counteroffensive aimed at retaking Russian-occupied areas this spring.”
Ukrainian officials have dismissed the intelligence and remained optimistic about launching its counteroffensive planned to retake the 18% of the country occupied by Russia.
Given that their perception accurately describes the state of the war, U.S. officials have to decide how much aid to keep giving to Ukraine. With no end in sight, how much money would be considered too much? If the U.S. continues to give, that would only prolong the conflict. More weapons and money that get sent to Ukraine means that they would have more time and effort to keep fighting back against Russia. If Putin sees that Ukraine is not going to back down, he will escalate his attacks, which would make Ukraine suffer from heavier casualties and infrastructure damage. After the war ends, Ukraine would need a lot of time and money to rebuild.
On the other hand, the U.S. could start giving less, but that also comes with consequences. President Biden has vowed to stand with Ukraine, already giving 75 billion dollars and weapons. To pull out after a commitment would tarnish the U.S.’s reputation as a superpower and ally. Afghanistan was already a prime example of how the U.S. pulled out despite investing more than two trillion dollars, only for the Taliban to gain control after 20 years. The U.S. is in the midst of another similar situation; officials need to decide whether to continue sending money in the hope of a Ukranian victory or ease off the gas to avoid a major loss. A Russian victory would be another step in challenging the Western-led world order.
The U.S. government should take the first option of cutting aid, which would be best. A surrender or treaty that gives up Ukranian soil will give Russia and China a confidence boost to defy the West, but Ukraine must rebuild. Together, the U.S. and Ukraine should push toward a quicker end to the war to minimize damage. During the period of a cease-fire, they should also plan a thorough strategy to retake the lost territory, something that wasn’t possible when Russia suddenly decided to step foot in Ukraine. The documents suggest that despite Western aid, Russia will win the war over time, so why pour more resources into a losing battle when Ukraine can push toward peace to rebuild and eventually retake its land?
