Ukraine’s Recent Progress —and What the West Can Do More
Since the start of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine last February, the world has been plunged into this conflict. A second wave of Ukrainian counter-offensives in Zaporizhzhia Oblast began in early June this year, and the war has recently escalated further with the use of cruise missiles, a group of which destroyed a significant Russian command office. With the new development in the war, the importance of Western aid became even more evident.
A Western audience reading this may wonder what their country can do to alleviate the situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, considering the importance of Ukraine in keeping the Western bloc intact and preventing further Russian incursions into Eastern Europe. The West needs to provide military support to Ukraine because the Ukrainian military depends on foreign weapons and equipment — in fact, that may be the only thng that is fueling their war effort.
The Ukrainian military has proven to be a capable fighting force as long as it has the equipment necessary. On the morning of Sept. 21, Russia launched cruise missiles throughout Ukraine, 36 of which were shot down according to the official account of the Ukrainian Air Force. The following day, on Sept. 22, Ukraine launched Storm Shadow cruise missiles on the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet located in Sevastopol. The Special Operations Forces Command of Ukraine’s Armed Forces later reported that they killed 34 officers, including the commanding officer of the Black Sea Fleet, Admiral Viktor Sokolov. The Ukrainian Army also breached the Surovikin Line, the primary line of defense in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, littered with minefields and anti-tank defenses. The goal of the counterattack in Zaporizhzhia Oblast was to reach the town of Tokmak and, if successful, continue on towards the Azov coast at Melitopol and Berdyansk, splitting the entire Russian army in Ukraine into two. Many experts have considered this a significant gain because it led the way for a general southern offensive towards the coast.
United States President Joe Biden promised Ukraine long-range tactical ballistic missiles weapons that could be used to strike Russian military targets well beyond the border. In addition to long range attack capability, the West has promised Ukraine with F-16 fighters, which will likely alleviate Ukraine’s air superiority problem if given in substantial numbers. However, Ukraine will not be able to break the grinding stalemate if supplied with a much smaller quantity of Western arms. The recent progress in the war has shown that modern combat exhibits high rates of attrition, with both sides losing equipment extremely quickly. Current quantity of supplies contributed to Ukraine will allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to endure on the battlefield but will likely be insufficient to produce any groundbreaking change.
Almost as important as military support is public opinion support for Ukraine. While consistent public support positively influences diplomatic efforts against Russia, exaggerating war events actually hurts the cause. Initial media focus on Ukrainian losses during the summer probing attacks dwindled away as soon as that front restabilized, raising doubts about Western aid while leaving out crucial details. During the summer skirmishes, Western media inflated Ukrainian successes, calling a “breakthrough” on numerous occasions when gains were minimal. Sensationalization erodes trust, and Western governments must counter media exaggerations cautiously to maintain public support of the war endeavor. NATO aid to Ukraine is certainly helping the cause, but further contribution is necessary to win the war. The best thing Western states can do is to provide further military support for Ukraine and be honest with their own citizens of the effects their support has on the progress of the war.
Map of the frontline in Zaporizhzhia Oblast Image courtesy of Institute for the Study of War and American
By SUNGHYUN BAE and JOSEPH KIM
