What Ukraine Says About Us
By CJ Smith ’25
August 8, 2008: The headline of Slate cries, “Russia invades Georgia while the West Watches,” and asks, “How did it come to this?”
March 31, 2014: The Daily Mail article reads, “Russian freight trains full of tanks roll into Crimea.”
It’s now January of 2022, and here we are again. Russian aggression threatens the balance of power in Europe as President Vladimir Putin has moved nearly 100,000 troops to its border with Ukraine. Unlike Russia’s past two invasions, however, this likely upcoming assault of Ukraine has far greater geopolitical consequences. The Russian attack, along with the US and NATO response, could determine the fate of key alliances in Europe, as well as influence China’s increasingly hostile policies toward Taiwan and Southeast Asia. Ukraine serves as an omen and a prediction to several other global conflicts, bolstering the argument that Exeter should educate its students on current events.
Russia has long worked to destabilize countries beyond its borders without ever firing a gun. The Center for Strategic and International Studies writes, “Russian disinformation operations are currently a cornerstone of the country’s efforts to wield influence worldwide. Whether trying to weaken the European Union, NATO, individual countries, or other groups, Russian operations . . . have fostered much anxiety, fear, and division throughout the world.” Ukraine in particular provides Russia the opportunity to sow ethnic nationalism among Russian ethnic groups in the country, creating discord and distrust against the Ukrainian government and the West in general. Disinformation has also spread in Russia’s own borders. After the repressive crackdown of Russian protests in early 2021 demanding justice for the jailing of Alexi Navalny, Putin had to scramble for public approval in a country where many have likened his regime to Stalin; then-Moscow bureau chief Anton Troianoviski of The New York Times reported that “more than 5,000 people had been detained in at least 85 cities across Russia.” Unfortunately, Putin uses Russian invasions as a means to boost his popularity, with reporter Adam Taylor of The Washington Post stating that the annexation of Crimea “coincided with a 20 percentage point jump in Putin’s personal approval ratings.” With political unrest in the country, Putin has used disinformation in his country to create a false narrative against the West in preparation for invasion.
So what are the consequences of this Ukrainian invasion? For one, it’s an opportunity for Putin to show Russia’s strength, which if not countered by the US, could prove tempting for some of our allies. Take Germany, whose energy sector has become increasingly reliant on Russia. The Wall Street Journal asserts that “Germany has made itself even more dependent on Russian gas by shutting down nuclear plants.” The Biden Administration’s soft policy on German-Russian relations has also allowed the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline, a natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, to be built. This further gives Russia control over German energy, which has allowed Russia to leverage the country against the US. A Russian show of aggression with a weak US response is likely to pull some of our allies towards Russia’s direction, especially as their economies become increasingly reliant on Russia. Furthermore, the global food economy is in jeopardy. Journalist Rob Picheta of CNN reports, “Ukraine is expected to account for around a sixth of the world’s corn imports in the next five years . . . a direct hit to its production and output could impact the supply of certain foodstuffs.” Russia could easily leverage Ukraine’s food supply with a quick invasion, which could prove disastrous for the US.
More importantly, the Biden Administration’s actions to shut down pipelines and other non-renewable energy operations in the US have increased our reliance on global oil markets. Undoubtedly, Russian invading Ukraine will trigger the US to enact sanctions on the country, but these sanctions could prove disastrous to the global oil market. As Thomas Dusterberg of Forbes writes, “Russian President Vladimir Putin had refused to cut back oil production in the face of depressed prices caused by an unprecedented 3.5 million barrels per day (b/d) fall in demand occasioned by the coronavirus crisis . . . This price shock threatens serious damage to the overleveraged U.S. oil and gas sector already weakened by depressed demand and prices.” Russia has already used its global oil monopoly to harm the U.S., whose economic sanctions over Ukraine will surely cause a reaction damaging the global oil market. Overall, increasing our reliance on foreign oil and energy has made our market vulnerable to our enemies; there is no doubt that Russia will exploit this to further its global ambitions.
The Ukrainian crisis, I believe, also foreshadows China’s ambition when it comes to Taiwan. The Chinese Communist Party has already cracked down on dissent throughout the country, and it has rapidly increased its sphere of influence in Taiwan and the South China Sea. Danny Russel, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs under President Barack Obama, said, “Russia’s confrontation with Ukraine and its international response is an invaluable real-time lesson on the cost-benefit of possible future military action to reclaim Taiwan. If Putin should invade and refuse to withdraw from Ukraine, the failure of the US to deter him followed by the failure to expel him would vastly strengthen Beijing’s campaign to convince people in Taiwan… that ‘resistance is futile’ because the U.S. security pledges are no longer credible.’” Starting with the Belt and Road Initiative to gain political and economic control over developing countries in the Middle East, Africa, and Central and Southeast Asia, China now sees a possibility in retaking Taiwan and reducing the U.S.’s role in international affairs. Additionally, after the Biden Administration’s debacle in Afghanistan, China sees the U.S. as vulnerable — the Administration’s response to Ukraine will confirm or deny its suspicions.
Why should Exonians care about this conflict? While this op-ed may inform you about the precarious situation in Eastern Europe and the dire consequences that potentially follow, it’s hard to truly understand the ramifications of a conflict when it’s occurring 4,640 miles away. Unfortunately, the consequences of the Russian invasion will spill over to the U.S. Higher gas prices from a disrupted oil market. Potential corn and other agriculture disturbances. Losing our key allies in Southeast Asia, which could have frightful ramifications in the future. That’s why it is vital that Exeter institute some form of current events education, particularly on events outside of the U.S. This education should focus not only on the details of the current events but also their impacts. Students need to be aware of how something happening not necessarily near them could still affect them and the world at large. For the sake of its students, The Academy should take the first step and institute current event education.
