Could We Have Acted Faster?

By Angela Zhang

Columnist

As of April 3, 2020, there are over a million confirmed cases of coronavirus worldwide. Over 290,000 of those are located in the U.S. We now have more confirmed cases than any other nation on Earth. Let that sink in for a little while.

My state, New Jersey, has over 29,000 confirmed cases. We’re second only to New York, which has over 100,000 confirmed cases. One hundred thousand. Honestly, I’m terrified, as are many others, especially those living in the hearts of this severe, unprecedented outbreak.

On March 31, during a White House coronavirus briefing, Trump said he believes New York and New Jersey governors are working efficiently to address the threats of coronavirus, but they “got off to a very late start.” 

Is this really true, though? As the number of confirmed cases seem to grow endlessly, I find myself wondering whether or not my state’s, and even my country’s, response to coronavirus was timely. 

Could things have played out differently if different measures were taken? 

Let’s start with a brief timeline of what New Jersey has done since January, when the coronavirus was first publicized. Statistics on confirmed cases and death toll are included.

Jan. 28: The Center for Disease Control increases staffing at New Jersey quarantine stations

March 4: First presumptive positive case in New Jersey

March 9: With a nationwide epidemic in full swing, Princeton moves to online classes. There are eleven confirmed cases, and New Jersey finally declares a state of emergency and enforces price gouging rules.

March 10: First coronavirus-related death in New Jersey. Insurance agencies waive screening and testing copays.

March 12: Jersey City imposes New Jersey’s first curfew. The state now has 29 confirmed cases, and Gov. Phil Murphy recommends, but does not require, the cancellation of events with over 250 people.

March 15: Several towns and cities declare a state of emergency. For his part, the governor promotes (but does not mandate) social distancing. The epidemic is rapidly spreading—there are 98 confirmed cases and two deaths. 

Cases have tripled in the past three days—where is the mandated distancing?

March 16: Non-essential travel from 8 p.m. to 5 a.m. is discouraged—but not banned. Restaurants are limited to takeout and delivery, while gatherings are limited to 50 or fewer people. All schools are required to close. There are 178 confirmed cases and three deaths.

Overnight, the confirmed cases doubled. Apparently, that was still not enough to mandate social distancing. 

March 17: Murphy requests construction of temporary hospitals. All stores must cease operations at 8 p.m., including grocery stores and pharmacies. 267 confirmed cases, three dead.

The situation is severe enough that we may need additional hospitals—but not severe enough to mandate social distancing? 

March 18: Several extensions related to bills, fees, licenses, etcetera. 427 confirmed cases, five dead. 

Cases are literally growing by the hundreds daily and exponentially nationwide. People are still actively going outside to public areas. Why no stay-at-home order?

March 19: Murphy requests that the Bergen County Executive rescind an Executive Order that would mandate the closing of malls and restrict big box stores. Murphy orders the closure of personal care businesses that cannot follow social distancing measures. 742 confirmed cases, nine dead.

March 21: Murphy finally signs an executive stay-at-home order. 1,327 confirmed cases, all over the state. 16 people dead.

It took over 1,000 cases and 16 deaths for the governor to finally mandate statewide social distancing. Why was it necessary to wait so long? Could we not have enforced this much earlier, perhaps preventing all these cases and deaths? 

March 31: The state will finally ticket and legally charge violators of social distancing.

Based on this timeline, I wonder why social distancing was not mandated at the very beginning of this fiasco. Because let’s face it—we saw what happened in Italy. We knew this would get bad. Could this situation could have been avoided, or at least lessened, if we practiced social distancing at an earlier time?

There’s no real way to say for sure. However, data from Washington and California does support the claim that social distancing helps to limit the spikes in confirmed cases—especially if practiced from the very beginning. 

It took nearly a month for the New Jersey governor to finally mandate social distancing and charge those who violate it, but, by then, cases were already multiplying at intense rates. Yes, these are unprecedented times, so it’s definitely difficult to make executive decisions. I understand that. But do we really need to wait for the situation to get that bad before we take stern action? At this point, I think it’s time we admit the enforcement of social distancing was inevitable. Putting it off and pretending like time would magically solve a critical issue was beyond naive. It put us at more risk. 

According to the Washington Post, Washington State and California were the first states to have confirmed cases. They were also the first states to mandate social distancing. By keeping people physically apart, these states’ daily confirmed cases rates have greatly decreased. 

That is definitely not the same situation on the East Coast. Our numbers keep rising, and our authorities are partially to blame.

South Korea was also in the same predicament as us, but research showed they responded efficiently in a timely manner by extensively testing and enforcing their social distancing regulations. Cases have significantly dropped, and it seems like they are on their way to recovery. 

The U.S. still does not have nationwide social distancing measures enforced. It’s predicted that, even if we strictly adhere to the advised guidelines, the country will experience anywhere from 100,000 to 200,000 deaths. To put that number in context, the middle estimate has us roughly at the number of American military deaths in Vietnam, Korea, Iraq and Afghanistan put together. In fact, add 9/11, Pearl Harbor and the shootings in Las Vegas, Orlando, Virginia Tech, Sandy Hook, El Paso and Parkland, and you’re still 25,000 deaths short of that middle estimate, roughly.

That is truly insane. It terrifies me. We need the government to emphasize the importance of “flattening the curve.” We need to mandate distancing nationwide, and we need to do it now.