Centrism at the French Polls
By: Joonyoung Heo ‘25
French President Emmanuel Macron’s victory over Marine Le Pen in the presidential election last April turned quite a few heads. His success makes him the first French president to secure a second term in just about two decades, and the first with a parliamentary majority to win since Charles de Gaulle in 1965. Macron’s victory itself is not what took many by surprise; numerous election models had predicted before the second round that he would ultimately triumph over Le Pen. It was the numbers that were unexpected. Among other reputable sources, The Economist predicted in the first week of April that Macron, the “standard-bearer” of centrism, would only win by a narrow margin of 6 percent (53 percent to 47 percent). In reality, Macron defeated Le Pen with a margin of nearly 18 percent. This outcome indicates a shift in the sociopolitical climate of France and, for the broader future of centrist politics, the importance of renewal.
Macron’s most recent victory is a reiteration of the 2017 election, in which his primary opponent was the very same Marine Le Pen. Their previous struggle was far more decisive with Macron winning his first term with 66 percent to Le Pen’s 34 percent––a wide margin of about 32 percent. There was a good amount of luck involved, of course, when center-right candidate Francois Fillon, hitherto the frontrunner of the election, took a devastating blow after a series of political scandals were made public. But Macron’s first term was also largely the result of his centrism, a moderate party sandwiched between left and right on the political spectrum.
Specifically, Macron offered pragmatism over extreme party-based political ideology. His campaign was built on promises of a reinvigorated French economy and a pro-European government. In particular, his policies would stimulate growth and combat rising unemployment. Much to popular support, he pledged to mediate Brexit negotiations and consistently criticized the Russian government, backing sanctions imposed by the European Union (EU) in retaliation for the Russian annexation of the Crimean Peninsula. Overall, while Le Pen came across as negative and opposed to the system, Macron was framed as positive and optimistic about the future; BBC even describes that his campaign rallies were bright and festive, featuring pop music and colorful banners, in contrast to the “heavier police presence” and “angrier undercurrent” of Le Pen’s gatherings.
Tethered to Macron’s policies and his radical campaign was a fresh start for the French populace. At the time, the West was locked in political disunity. Britain had voted to leave the EU. From Denmark to Germany, populism was rapidly spreading across the continent. In the U.S., Donald Trump had just been elected to the White House. Political factions were in direct clash, and people wanted someone who could effectively deal with these problems. Then along came Emmanuel Macron, the youngest candidate in the 2017 election and a man who had never before run for elected office. He had founded his own political party, En Marche!, no more than a year before the election. Everything about him was novel; his budding campaign combined liberal ideology on prevalent social issues, such as gay rights, that garnered support from the left, and laissez-faire economics that appealed to the right. Macron represented a refreshing alternative to a congested masthead of extreme left- and right-wing politicians.
Macron’s re-election last month is a clear sign that he retains the support of a majority in the French populace. The strengths of his first presidential term can best be seen, perhaps, in the economy. Rather than cling on to redundant and obsolete jobs, his policies have strived to reform employee training, implement early education, and fund the creation of new businesses. Macron emphasized the importance of doing things the right way from the very beginning––even before his first term in office, he argued that the French government ought to provide its citizens with the skills they needed to navigate a rapidly changing global economy. He certainly wasn’t inclined to embrace tradition and nostalgia if he believed his country could do better. Much to the public’s approval, his administration expended hundreds of hours and billions of euros to help its workers and businesses through the COVID-19 pandemic. Whatever his political opponents may claim, it cannot be denied that he still has considerable support from his voters. The election models of 2022, it seems, drastically underestimated the popularity of Macron’s centrist politics.
Yet it must be conceded, equally, that Macron has lost a significant amount of appeal in the eyes of French voters. An 18 percent margin this past April is certainly greater than the 6 percent that The Economist predicted, but it’s noticeably inferior to the 32 percent margin of 2017. The numbers indicate a shift in French politics, suggesting that five years of centrist ideology has repelled from the center many indecisive votes on the left-right spectrum. Present-day politics, rooted in a virulent pandemic and armed conflict in Europe, have undoubtedly served to polarize the French voters––but Macron cannot blame his 18 percent margin on an unfortunate series of events.
In reality, his first term has disillusioned many of his supporters, especially those who lean to the left. In particular, his decision to abolish the annual solidarity tax on wealth (ISF), a tax on the most affluent French citizens, has earned the distaste of left-wing voters. While Macron had only meant to “encourage business growth and stimulate innovation,” it was widely perceived as a “betrayal” of the working class. What was presented by his administration as a fiscal policy for the betterment of France has been scorned by the left as one that has exposed his preference for the upper-class. From then on, his critics have dubbed him “le president des riches” (literally “the President of the Rich”).
Perhaps it was inevitable that Macron, in five years, should have leaned to one end of the political spectrum. His presidential campaign may have offered a win-win deal for both left-wing and right-wing voters, but he could never really have stayed in the dead center for an entire term of office. Neutrality on the political spectrum is little more than an unattainable ideal in the workings of government. Eventually––inevitably––he had to take a side, and in matters of the French economy, he chose to slide away from the left and aligned his policies with the right. In this sense, the shift from a 32 percent margin in 2017, earned through the avant-garde appeal of a centrist politician, to an 18 percent margin in 2022 was only natural. Many of those who cast a ballot for Macron were enticed by a new start promised by an up-and-coming politician. It follows, then, that the allure of novelty should have dried out in the first five years of his tenure.
As things stand right now, if Macron could run for a third term in the next election, it is doubtful that he would be able to win. Indeed, if his political adversary had been a more popular, perhaps more moderate public figure in place of far-right nationalist Le Pen, his odds of a second term in office would have been a great distance from certain. Le Pen was famous for her controversial policy proposals––among them, following in Britain’s footsteps to leave the EU––and though she had abandoned many of them, she has maintained her radical position on immigration and the legality of headscarves, which she called “a uniform imposed by the Islamists.” Her support for Russian President Vladimir Putin in the past, in light of the ongoing invasion in Ukraine, was a critical weakness that Macron quickly and efficiently exploited. For quite a few voters, Macron was simply the better option.
The fundamental implication is that the world can never have too many centrist politicians. For left- and right-wing voters to coalesce under a single centrist candidate, they need a new face. A semblance of political neutrality––a perfectly centered candidate, leaning neither left nor right––cannot survive a term in office. Sooner or later a politician will have to make a choice, and that choice will polarize the country, disappointing one faction while pleasing another, and reveal their “true colors.” If it really is in the best interest of the French people to elect a centrist to the Elysee Palace, as they elected Emmanuel Macron in 2017, a new candidate will have to rise to the challenge.
