Editors’ Corner: Pre-Election Predictions
Presidential Candidates Donald J. Trump and Joseph R. Biden. Avery Lavine/The Exonian
By DILLON MIMS ’21
Four years ago, Democrats walked into election night with an overconfident faith in their own superiority and electoral chances. Up until the very end, they scoffed at Donald Trump and his supporters—whom Hillary Clinton herself called a “basket of deplorables”—all while neglecting to campaign (or at least campaign enough) in the states where such voters reside. A Clinton victory was, to them, as inevitable as a Trump presidency was unthinkable.
And yet— because a Clinton victory was not inevitable, and it in fact did not come— here we are.
This election will be close. Nail-bitingly close. There won’t be a blowout, and there won’t be a landslide. But, four years after their loss in 2016, Democrats have learned from their previous mistakes; and this time, they’ll win. The Biden camp has spent the past three weeks vigorously campaigning, sending the former Vice President, Senator Harris, and superstar President Obama to swing states across the country. They’ve centralized heavily on the rust belt— Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania— which all went from Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016. Biden, who’s always connected well with white working class constituencies, is attempting to rebuild the “blue wall.” FiveThirtyEight polling shows that his efforts are working. Moreover, Vice President Biden doesn’t need to win every state in the rust belt, depriving the Trump campaign of just one or two crucial states could spell the undoing of a second-term for the current president.
Beyond the northern mid-west, however, there are three more surprising states in which the Biden campaign has been spending its utmost valuable time: Texas, Florida, and Georgia. If history were to be any indication, the Democrats don’t have a chance of winning anywhere south of the Mason-Dixon Line, but this isn’t history, and changing demographics— along with the mass-mobilization efforts of Stacey Abrams (GA), Beto O’Rourke (TX), and Andrew Gillum (FL), who each lost their own elections in 2018— have thrown all three once-safely GOP states into electoral contention. That said: the only state with a close-to-probable chance at going blue is Georgia, where Black voters have largely redefined the Peach State’s political identity. Texas and Florida, wrought with voter suppression, will likely fall, as usual, into the GOP column. And yet, the fact that any of these southern states have a fighting chance at going blue is an ominous sign for Republicans, who’ve been forced to spend both time and money fighting for states that few thought would even be competitive, leaving the Democrats more open space in the states they need to win back.
Of course, there are more than just these factors that led to such a forecast of Biden’s success, the mismanaged pandemic and economic crisis least among them. But there are just as many elements unaccounted for that might make his path to victory untenable, marred by bad polling (see: 2016) or a blatant theft of the election aided by a conservative Supreme Court (see: 2000). This is no normal election, and ultimately, there is no way to assuredly know the outcome beforehand. But if all things are free in fair— as they not often are in America— Joe Biden will narrowly, but conclusively, become the next President of the United States.
A Visual Representation of Dillon’s predictions.
By DENNIS KOSTAKOGLU-AYDIN ’21
Of course, none of this actually matters. The final election day maps aren’t important because the race will be decided by the millions of votes still left uncounted by noon on Wednesday, Nov. 4. These votes have the potential to flip Pennsylvania for Biden (should he lose there), and maybe Georgia if Democrats are lucky. However, if the news cycle has been telling us anything these past couple weeks, it’s that Republicans, in an undemocratic abuse of their power, are trying to prevent mail-in votes from being counted. The Supreme Court already struck down such attempts in North Carolina and extended the vote counting period in Pennsylvania. In addition, over the weekend, the Texas Supreme Court shot down a Republican-led attempt to throw out almost 127,000 votes. Unfortunately, the Supreme Court now has a 6-3 conservative majority, with three of those conservative judges elected by the incumbent president. It is possible that the president will use the judicial system to invalidate a Biden win, or ensure a Trump win. Mostly because Biden supporters actually believe scientists, I believe that a lot of the mail in votes are for Biden; as a result, Biden’s path to 270 right now is to allow the mail-in ballots to be counted, while Trump’s is to ensure that they aren’t. I really hope that the precedents set this weekend in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Texas will allow all mail-in ballots to be counted, and pave the path for a Biden victory sometime next week or the week after. Although, depending on what the Trump campaign and the Republicans have up their sleeves, Biden could also lose the election in a heart-wrenching manner reminiscent of Al Gore in 2000.
Dennis’ prediction of a close race tipping in Trump’s favor.
By EMMANUEL TRAN ‘21
I predict a slight Trump victory, regardless of the polling averages. Many of the polls show a Trump victory, yet the experience of 2016 shows that we should be wary of polls, since they seem to give a skew for the left. I think that, if you look at even polls which predict Biden to win, they also show Trump to be preferred on the economy. While many voters may prefer Biden, when it comes down to it, the economy will be important to them. Finally, I think the issue of coronavirus lockdowns will play to Trump, as many small business owners see the coronavirus policies as terrible for their bottom line.
Emmanuel’s prediction with a more decisive Trump victory than his fellow editors.
By STEPHEN MCNULTY ‘21
My map centers around one premise that the Editorial Board has tasked me with—arguing for a Biden landslide. Firstly, I want to offer a brief summary of where I don’t think the wave will go. For instance, I don’t think Biden’s wave will reach Florida, where early voting turnout has been subpar, at best. Nor do I think it will reach Ohio, where Biden continues to struggle in the polls. But beyond that, I believe. I believe that turnout will reach record levels across the nation. I believe that suburban America will move the needle. And I even believe in blue Texas. It’s a risky prediction for sure, but I think that when push comes to shove, this is where America is heading. I am allowing myself to hope.
Stephen with a much larger margin for Biden than the other predictions.