Kurdish Independence
On September 25, 93 percent of Iraqi Kurds voted for independence from Iraq. The Kurds, being the largest ethnic population without a homeland, have a compelling case. Most of Iraq is Shi’a, while the Kurds are Sunni Muslims. Throughout their history, they have suffered through discrimination, massacres and oppression. And because the Kurds are integrated into sovereign nations such as Turkey and Iraq, they cannot have their own political or economic system. Thus, it seems logical that the Kurds should be able to succeed and create their own autonomous state. But with the presence of ISIS, rising tensions between surrounding countries and disputes over oil threatening both the Kurdish and global economy, Kurdish secession would be detrimental to the entire world.
Though there is a looming danger to the safety of the Kurdish people, economic turmoil is a concern for an independent Kurdish state.
Although the Iraqis and Kurds don’t typically get along, they have worked together on one issue: the fight against ISIS. Iraqi and Kurdish forces marched side by side in the Battle of Mosul to retake the city from the Islamic State. Their teamwork led to a major victory against ISIS that some argue was a turning point in the larger war against the terrorist organization. Even though the Iraqis and Kurds have a common enemy, the Kurdish still want autonomy from Iraq. The risk that an independent Kurdish state and Iraqi Special Forces would start a conflict is too high. If violence leads to war, the two groups would not work together to defeat ISIS and would be distracted by their own conflict. This would lead to the strengthening of ISIS in the heart of the Middle East.
The creation of Kurdistan would not only ignite conflict with Iraq, but Turkey, too. Turkey’s history with their Kurdish population has been long and dark. The Kurds have been demanding independence from Turkey since 1978. The conflict has cost hundreds of billions of dollars and claimed 40,000 lives. The Turkish effort to stop all opportunities for an independent Kurdish state continues to this day. If the Kurdish attempt is successful, Turkey would not hesitate to take extreme measures to revert the progress.
Not only do the Kurds face resistance from Turkey and Iraq, but also from Syria and Iran. Kurdistan is located in the northeastern corner of Iraq, meaning that they have enemies to the north, south, east and west and no direct access to an oceanic port. The closest powerful ally that the Kurds have is Russia to the north. Russia has continued to fund the Kurds, promising to give them four billion dollars in less than a year. Being the only world power to not denounce the referendum vote, Russia has expanded the seemingly regional problem to a global issue. With Kurdish independence comes the possibility of increased tensions in the Middle East between the United States and Russia, as they have taken opposite sides in this dilemma.
Though there is a looming danger to the safety of the Kurdish people, economic turmoil is a concern for an independent Kurdish state. The only resource currently financially sustaining the Kurds is oil. They sit on 45 billion gallons worth of oil, which takes up a significant portion of Iraq’s reserves. Unfortunately for the Kurds, their main pipeline ends in Ceyhan, Turkey. The Turks have threatened to cut off the Kurdish oil supply if they gain independence by shutting down their end of the pipeline. This would do a great deal of damage to an already fragile oil market. In a matter of three years, the price of oil per barrel has fluctuated from 100 to 26 to 60 dollars. By declaring independence now, the Kurds would effectively be adding more instability to the market. This would bring uncertainty to the future of many major global economies that rely on the rich oil reserves in Iraq.
So, even though the Kurds may deserve to have a homeland, this is simply not the right time. The Kurdish President Masoud Barzani, along with many others, believes that if they keep waiting for the perfect moment, the Kurdish people will never be independent. Yet it is not intelligent to pick a time when one of the cruelest terrorist organizations in history presents a threat to the entire region, the oil market is unreliable and the all of the surrounding countries are violent and hostile.