What to do About North Korea
During his first address to the United Nations General Assembly this month, President Donald Trump reaffirmed the United States’ staunch refusal to accept North Korea as a nuclear state, calling North Korean leader Kim Jong Un “a rocket man on a suicide mission”. President Trump also reiterated the commitment to defend South Korea and Japan, two allies of the United States, from North Korean attack. North Korea responded swiftly with its own remarks to destroy the United States, in typical hyperbole, should the nation come under attack. Tensions continue to mount in the region, with the US recently flying a B-1B bomber near the inter-Korean border in a show of force. North Korea is also projected to conduct more nuclear and missile tests in mid-October, during which North Korea celebrates its own Party Foundation Day.
Amidst the rhetoric of war, destruction, and nuclear apocalypse, those unfamiliar with the complex web of US entanglements in the East Asia region may have become alarmed at the recent escalation. Riding this momentum, geopolitical pundits have also taken to the Internet once again to forecast war on the horizon. However, a closer look at the unique circumstances surrounding the Korean Peninsula shows that war, though a very real possibility, is unlikely to erupt anytime soon.
Korea was once one country, liberated from Japanese colonization by the Allies during World War II. Split between a communist North and a US-friendly South, Korea experienced a civil war from 1950 to 1953, which ended in an armistice. An armistice differs from a treaty in that North and South Korea only agreed to a cease-fire, not an end to the war with a full peace settlement. Technically, the two countries are still at war. Currently, the United States maintains several military bases in South Korea with about 37,500 US personnel, in the interest of protecting its ally South Korea.
According to the CIA’s assessment of North Korean military forces conducted in 2010, a war between the United States and North Korea would result in a one-sided slaughter. North Korea, still operating equipment and technology from the 1970s, when it received aid from the former Soviet Union, would not be able to mount a serious defense against the combination of an air, naval, and ground attack by US and South Korean troops. Surely, North Korea knows that a war with the United States would end with the complete destruction of the North Korean military. Yet, the isolated nation continues to provoke its neighbors with threats of nuclear attack. The actions of the North Korean leadership, on the surface, seem baffling in light of these facts. Yet, when considering the geopolitical perspective of North Korea, its over-the-top actions make more sense. The Korean peninsula lies squarely between China and Japan, the world’s #2 and #3 largest economies by GDP, respectively.
Historically, Korea has frequently fallen under the influence of these two nations. North Korea views nuclear armament as a tool to level the playing field, so that it might be able to compete with these heavyweights. The recent provocations by North Korea can better be interpreted as a form of political posturing, shouting for recognition and acknowledgement from China, Japan, and the United States.
The other possibility is a preemptive strike by the United States. Even under the current administration, a preemptive strike is unlikely due to the collateral damage to Seoul, the South Korean capital, and the Chinese refugee crisis that would occur when millions of displaced North Korean citizens flood across the Chinese border in an attempt to escape the fighting.
For North Korea, its deepest desire lies in its wish for recognition as a nuclear state, joining the ranks of countries such as China, France, the United Kingdom, and Russia. Unfortunately for Kim Jong Un, the rest of the world is determined to prevent this from happening. At best, North Korea will run out of options and liberalize slowly, following in the footsteps of other communist nations such as China or Vietnam. At worst, the North Korean regime will collapse on its own, unable to sustain its “rocket man” aspirations. Either way, the United States stands to gain the most as long it maintains its defensive, not offensive, position against North Korea.