New Wave of Terrorism Adds to Uncertainty
Despite the holiday festivities, or perhaps because of them, a new onslaught of terrorist attacks spread across Europe and the Middle East. The assassination of a Russian ambassador, civilian murders and propaganda intended to radicalize and recruit new members all served to destabilize an already tumultuous global environment. The recent spike in Islamic State activity, combined with rising unrest and a reshaped political landscape, points to the attacks of this month setting the stage for an even more violent year to come.
Andrei Karlov, the Russian diplomat, was killed at an art exhibition in Ankara, Turkey on December 19, 2016. The assassin, an off-duty Turkish police officer, smuggled a gun into the museum. He used his badge to sidestep metal detectors, and shot Mr. Karlov, shouting, “Remember Syria! Remember Aleppo!” It remains unclear if the assailant was connected to a known terrorist organization. The attack was apparently in response to the Russian government’s backing of the Assad dictatorship, which helped turn the tide of the Syrian Civil War against the rebels. Recently, the Syrian government retook Aleppo, wiping out one of the last rebel strongholds.
Despite the notion that the attack would endanger political ties between Turkey and Russia, the event seems to have had the opposite effect. Presidents Putin and Erdogan agreed to collaborate on the investigation, as well as counter-terrorism efforts. Following raids and bombings in Aleppo, Russia and Turkey brokered a Syrian cease-fire between the government and most rebel groups.
The same night as the Ankara attack, a truck driver killed 12 people at a Christmas market in Berlin, Germany. Anis Amri, the 24 year old driver, murdered the original driver and hijacked the truck, then careened into a crowded market with the aim of killing as many as he could reach. Amri was later shot and killed by Italian police after managing to flee as far as Milan. The Islamic State later released a video of Amri pledging his allegiance to their cause. The attack left Germany devastated, not only by the act of terrorism but also by the knowledge that he was on a terrorist watch list and had already been held in six different prisons before entering Germany in 2015.
At approximately 1 a.m. on January first an Islamic State affiliated gunman shot a security guard and police officer at the entrance of the Reina nightclub in Istanbul and killed 39 people within, injuring many more. This marked the fourth attack in Turkey in under a month. The assault was sanctioned by the Islamic State, who released a video urging its radical, militant followers to “turn their happiness and joy [of Turkey and coalition countries] into grieves and their feasts into funerals.” The attacker, though his identity is known, remains at large. As the search continues, further details about the suspected gunman point to guerrilla warfare training in Syria. The Syrian Civil War dragged many nations into the fray, including Turkey, Russia, Kurdish forces, the United States, and other Middle Eastern countries. As a result, these countries have become targets of the Islamic State and other terrorist factions, but as of late, none more so than Turkey.
Still reeling from a failed military coup in July, Turkey has been subjected to multiple terrorist attacks, claiming hundreds of lives, civilian and otherwise. The epidemic is not helped by Turkey’s long and porous Syrian border, which allows for militants and weapons to flow into the country. Internal struggles have also contributed to the ineptitude of Turkish security and counter-terrorism forces. Although current government was democratically elected, there is a large Kurdish minority that opposes the present regime. There have been a number of armed conflicts between various Kurdish groups and Turkish military forces. Turkey therefore faces a foreign enemy in the Islamic State and also a domestic one in the form of the PKK, or Kurdistan Workers Party.
The inability of the EU and Turkey to prevent these attacks plays a central role in countries with upcoming elections. Ever since the United Kingdom severed its ties with Europe, more countries have been willing to follow suit, demonstrated by the popularity of one French presidential hopeful Marine Le Pen. Counter-terrorism incompetence also raises questions about the effectiveness of state intelligence agencies and the need for a more unified Europe, despite talk of variations on “Brexit” by various European countries. A new White House administration, with radically different personnel and approaches to foreign policy, adds to the uncertainty about where the next year will take us.